The orange line is the value of the 99.5/100.5 call spread — priced via Black-Scholes at 90 IV as CL moves. It is the fair probability that CL settles above $100. The teal line is Kalshi's market price for the same question. The gap between them is the trade. Current signal: Market rich.

Each dot is a snapshot: x = CL price, y = probability. The slope of the regression line is the delta — how much probability moves per $1 in CL. The call spread slope is your model delta. The Kalshi slope is the implied delta. The ratio of slopes suggests an edge.